Airbus Hoping To Get A Head Start

Where's the next big market for commercial airliners? It should come as no surprise the answer is China... where Boeing expects as many as 2,900 new planes will be delivered by 2025. Furthermore... Boeing expects to retain the 60 percent share of the market it currently enjoys in China.

Boeing vice president for marketing Randy Baseler told XFN-Asia the company expects many of those orders to be for widebodied aircraft, such as the company's 777 and upcoming 787. However, in its company marketing forecast Boeing said the majority of those 2,900 orders are expected to be for single-aisle planes, such as the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 family.

Boeing expects around 1,840 total deliveries for those plane types... perhaps more if the two companies redesign the popular narrowbodies within that timeframe, which seems an almost-certainty.

At the other end of the spectrum -- large aircraft -- Boeing says there will be less than 100 deliveries for planes like the 747 and Airbus A380 to China within the next 20 years... perhaps yet another significant blow to its rival Airbus, which had bet much of its fortunes on the oft-delayed, 550-passenger A380.

But don't count Airbus out of the Chinese market just yet... in fact, Airbus president and CEO Louis Gallois was reportedly locked in talks late Wednesday night to lock down a big deal to sell aircraft in China, in time for a signing ceremony coinciding with a visit to Beijing by French President Jacques Chirac.

China often times big deals to break during official diplomatic visits... such as last December's 150-plane megaorder, announced during a visit by Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao to Airbus' headquarters in Toulouse.

Officials downplayed rumors of another big order this time around -- although there is speculation the current deal could be for as many as 70 aircraft, most of them expected to be A320-family planes.

Such an order would be a significant accomplishment for Airbus... which was struggled mightily this year to match rival Boeing's order book. To perhaps sweeten the deal, many also expect Airbus to finalize plans to build a Chinese assembly plant for the A320 during Chirac's visit.

FMI: www.boeing.com, www.airbus.com