If You Think YOU'RE Sick Of This, THEY'RE On Omelek...

Murphy double-teamed the SpaceX Launch Team on Omelek Island in the Kwajalein Atoll this weekend with two separate problems, either of which would have been enough to lead to a cancellation on its own. The mission has been postponed again. But what's worse, what began as a another 24-hour hold is now looking likely to be a longer delay.

The two serious problems were an uncommanded computer reboot and a mis-set LOX valve, and either one might have scrubbed the launch. But the LOX valve caused SpaceX to lose LOX and liquid helium, which are not readily replaceable in mid-Pacific. (At the company's other launch site, Vandenberg AFB, it'd be a minor glitch).

SpaceX Founder and CEO Elon Musk, with much of his net worth tied up in the innovative launch company, reminded us that he has always been cautious about the prospects of a bug-free first countdown. "As I warned, the likelihood of an all new rocket launching from an all new launch pad on its first attempt is low," he wrote in an email.  

Originally the problem was reported as a 24-hour delay: "The mission has been scrubbed until 12:00 noon EST tomorrow (27 November)," NASA reported from Florida. But analysis of the problems, which cropped up at the T-Minus 10-minutes hold point, means that the mission may not launch even then, according to SpaceX's Musk.

"We are anticipating rescheduling the launch within a week at the earliest but probably longer as we need to bring in LOX and helium from Hawaii. Our LOX plant on Omelek will not replenish our supply in time,"
he explained.

"The reason for the delay was an auxiliary liquid oxygen (LOX) fill tank had a manual vent valve incorrectly set to vent. The time it took to correct the problem resulted in significant LOX boiloff and loss of helium, and it was the latter that caused the launch abort. LOX is used to chill the helium bottles, so we lose helium if there is no LOX to cool the bottles."

"Although we were eventually able to refill the vehicle LOX tanks, the rate at which we could add helium was slower than the rate at which LOX was boiling away. There was no way to close the gap, so the launch had to be called off."

The computer problem, described as "an anomaly with the main engine computer" by Musk and as an uncommanded reboot at T-minus 10 by other sources, "requires further investigation," the entrepreneur said. Even without the LOX and helium problem, the computer glitch might have pointed to a mission scrub, he indicated.

To make matters worse, the Army's Missile Defense Agency has a major test taking place in early December and needs to prepare their missile, which has just been emplaced. A test like this is even more complicated than an actual wartime anti-ballistic-missile launch would be, because the test missile (and the target) must be completely instrumented.

Military sources tell Aero-News that if SpaceX can't kick Falcon 1 out of the nest on Monday (Kwajalein time, Sunday in the States), they probably won't get another launch slot until December 16th or later.

How much later?

While there is enormous pressure to conduct a timely test, the pressure to conduct a perfect test -- the last three interceptors sat in their holes for a variety of minor reasons -- is greater. The missile-defense launch could easily slide into January.

It may come down to Elon Musk's ability to persuade the military to give him another day out of their launch-prep schedule, but their schedule is already full to bursting with tests.

The weather conditions at Kwajalein were also less than optimal, with overcast conditions, and winds 15-22 knots with higher gusts in the vicinity of storms. The weather guessers say that Falcon 1 is going to be rained on overnight. And maybe for a lot of overnights.

FMI: www.spacex.com