by ANN Editor-In-Chief Jim Campbell and Correspondent John
Ballantyne
The Annual FAA Forecast
Conference is underway, right now, in Washington, D.C. All aspects
of aviation are stating their case, making complaints, trying out a
few predictions, and proffering potential solutions... and (in
most cases) preaching to the choir.
Well-attended... this has (so far) been a very interesting
meeting with plenty of substance more than its share of
confrontation -- and the promise of much more. The Friday meetings
should be just as "intriguing."
This is NOT a good time for the airline industry, even while GA
and other segments of aviation are enjoying guarded successes that
may be in danger if the petro situation continues to kick us in the
(expletive deleted).
A few of us in the audience were not experts in air carrier
issues-- but all of the speakers were experts in their own field,
as well as people who were unusually expert in getting their point
across. The range of opinions was quite varied and included many
speakers. It ranged from the woes of “legacy” airlines
(big, old guys like US Airways and Delta) to startup, European
low-cost airlines.
From the lofty
landscape of Senator Ted Stevens, (pictured below -- R-AK), a
pivotal member of the Senate Commerce Committee and Defense
Appropriations Subcommittee, to the nuts-and-bolts needs of the FAA
Administrator, Marion C. Blakey (pictured below), many perspectives
were presented during this first day at the FAA Aviation Forecast
meeting. The conference was hosted at the Washington DC Convention
Center and ably produced by ACI-NA and FAA. It was the year’s
opportunity to learn of the future of aviation in America (and the
world) through 2015.
For those of us attending who were not there with a principal
interest in airline issues, we came away with two very clear
messages from virtually every presenter: (1.) The airline industry
is in a period of tumultuous restructuring, and (2.) the air
traffic system is old and in need of major restructuring.
Fixing the airline industry is a complicated process of
down-sizing (a little jet in every garage?) without a cohesive
organizational solution. Inadequate funds to restructure ATC, which
many predicted is about to exceed its capability, is the other
problem, and the fix will probably be painful. Stevens, in his
key-note luncheon address, likened Social Security and ATC as
entities, both, in grave need of modernizing.
The clear message to those of us who fly privately in America
was that FAA needs larger or more numerous income streams to
support the now-growing demand on the air traffic system. More
plainly, they claim that users of the airspace are getting more
service than they are paying for -- despite the fact that an
objective view of the record seems to contradict this. Yet more
plainly (but never spoken out-loud) the concept of User Fees was
lurking behind every session.
Indeed, using virtually interchangeable terminology and
presentations, FAA Administrator Blakey, SecTrans Mineta (above),
and Senator Stevens orchestrated a coordinated plea for news
sources of FAA funding as well as an overhaul of the system by
which that funding is allocated. It was a well-choreographed
presentation with a strong script -- from which no one deviated.
While Blakey specifically said she wasn't recommending user fees,
by name, the hints surely sounded like the same animal. Note to
all; a big battle is coming up and User fees are going to be the
turning point of the war. Don't say we didn't warn you.
One of the panel sessions, a bit more GA oriented this time, was
presented by former NBAA Boss John Olcott (pictured above) and Air
Taxi Entrepreneur Donald Burr, both presentation provided some
balance and facts about the benefits and costs of GA in the overall
aeronautical scheme. Olcott was particularly forceful about the
value of GA and the need for the rest of the industry to recognize
same. A question put to the panel by ANN's Jim Campbell noted that
GA was taking flak from the airline world seeking to force more of
the costs upon them,as well as an attempt to blame them for some of
the airline world's shortcoming... Campbell then asked if this was,
first, accurate on its face, and whether such a position seemed a
bit like "eating our young."
Olcott reiterated the value of GA while side-stepping the more
confrontational aspects of the question but Burr's 'two cents'
provided the best quote of the day. Burr noted that as a man who
has run airlines that he was, at one time, one of those who saw GA
as a problem... but had since come to recognize such thinking as a
"congenital defect."
An interesting footnote to the Burr (pictured above)
presentation was his use of photos of the Eclipse 500 in his
powerpoint presentations (and referencing the airplane and the
company in his speech -- with no mention of any other aircraft)
instead of the Adam A700, for which his POGO Air Taxi is reported
to have placed some serious orders -- nearly 100 planes depending
on who you talk to. We've heard rumors that the Adam orders were in
big trouble, and that Eclipse and/or Cessna were likely to pick up
the resulting business. Take from that what you will... but it
looks like someone will be adding some more airplane orders
shortly. Stay tuned... this is going to get interesting.
On the positive side of things, though, ANN Editor-In-Chief Jim
Campbell's dinner meeting with Phil Boyer showed that GA's 600
pound gorilla, AOPA, is tanned, rested, ready and PREPARED to make
sure that GA doesn't wind up as the loser in the changes that are
coming. Staffers at NBAA also impress us with their ability
and willingness (and reinvigorated leadership), to take on these
issues as well... between the two of them, GA is better prepared to
do this kind of battle than it has been for decades.
ANN's Daily Aero-Linx (04.13.24)
See All