World Fleet Expected To Double Over The Next 20 Years
According to the Boeing 2012 Current Market Outlook (CMO) released Monday, the planemaker projects a $4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new airplanes over the next 20 years as the current world fleet doubles in size. The company's annual forecast reflects the strength of the commercial aviation market.
"The world's aviation market is broader, deeper and more diverse than we've ever seen it," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "It has proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and is driving production rate increases across the board."
Airline traffic is forecast to grow at a 5 percent annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 percent. The single-aisle market will continue its robust growth. Widebodies will account for almost $2.5 trillion dollars worth of new airplane deliveries with 40 percent of the demand for these long-range airplanes coming from Asian airlines.
Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years. Low cost carriers, with their ability to stimulate traffic with low fares, are growing faster than the market as a whole. There is also a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient airplanes. Replacement accounts for 41 percent of new deliveries in the forecast.
The market for new airplanes is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries. "It's incredible to see just how much air travel has changed since I took my first flight back in 1977," said Tinseth. "It has become critical to business and something we do for pleasure, to connect with family and friends. As the market continues to grow, especially in emerging economies, air travel will become affordable to even more people."
As the cargo market remains sluggish, Boeing has revised downward its projection for freighters over the next 20 years. Still, the world freighter fleet is projected to nearly double from 1,740 aircraft today to 3,200 at the end of the forecast period. Additions to the fleet will include 940 new-production freighters (market value of $250 billion) and 1,820 airplanes converted from passenger models. Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity) freighters will account for 680 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons) freighters will total 260 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons) will be required, but there will be 1,120 standard-body conversions.