Forecast International Projects Over 2,000 Will Be Produced In
The Next Decade
Forecast International's new "The Market for Light Military
Rotorcraft" study projects a total of 2,026 rotorcraft in this
market segment will be produced during the 2009-2018 time
period. The value of this production is estimated at $20.8
billion in constant 2009 U.S. dollars.
The Forecast International study projects that annual production
of light military rotorcraft will rise each year from 2009, when
163 are expected to be produced, through 2014, when production of
227 are forecast. Helping to drive this near-term market
growth are an influx of new light helicopter models that have
either just entered service or will soon do so. The new
models comprise a mix of all-new types and improved versions of
existing helicopter models.
Also contributing to the growth in the market is continuing
acquisition by the U.S. armed forces of significant numbers of
light helicopters. Bell is building AH-1Z attack helicopters
and UH-1Y transports for the U.S. Marine Corps, while Eurocopter is
producing UH-72A models for the U.S. Army's Light Utility
Helicopter program.
On the horizon is the impending launch of another U.S. Army
helicopter procurement effort, the Armed Aerial Scout program,
which is expected to involve the acquisition of more than 500
helicopters to replace OH-58D Kiowa Warriors in the Army fleet.
"Though not even formally launched, the AAS program is already
drawing considerable interest from rotorcraft manufacturers both in
the U.S. and beyond," said Forecast International senior aerospace
analyst Raymond Jaworowski. As examples, Jaworowski notes
that unofficial proposals have been made by Boeing, Eurocopter, and
Sikorsky regarding potential AAS candidate rotorcraft.
UH-72 Lakota
After 2014, the study's projections indicate that production of
light military rotorcraft will decline somewhat for a couple of
years before rebounding by the end of the forecast period.
The study predicts that, over the 10-year timeframe, Eurocopter
will lead the market in unit production, with Bell, Hindustan
Aeronautics Ltd, and AgustaWestland capturing the next three
spots.
In general, the Forecast International study defines as "light"
those military rotorcraft with a maximum gross weight of less than
6,804 kilograms (15,000 pounds), though the study does makes some
minor exceptions to this rule in determining the composition of the
light class.
Bell AH-1Z
The Forecast International study generally defines
"medium/heavy" as military rotorcraft with a maximum gross weight
of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb). The study contains
manufacturer market share projections for the 2009-2018 time
period, and these projections indicate Sikorsky will lead the
medium/heavy military rotorcraft market during this timeframe in
both unit production and value of production.
The European consortium NH Industries, which produces the
popular NH90 multirole helicopter, is expected to rank second in
unit production and third in value of production. Second
place in production value goes to the Bell/Boeing partnership that
produces the V-22 tiltrotor aircraft.
ANN's Daily Aero-Linx (04.16.24)
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